Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.342430 0.389790 0.441212 0.501177 0.569178 0.643894 0.732215
2025-09-14 0.261406 0.321595 0.392025 0.480484 0.588604 0.716458 0.879176
2025-09-21 0.209112 0.276006 0.359764 0.472255 0.619357 0.805197 1.057940
2025-09-28 0.168847 0.237878 0.329903 0.461404 0.644432 0.890184 1.245467
2025-10-05 0.146027 0.218527 0.320938 0.475908 0.704365 1.028804 1.524951
2025-10-12 0.123551 0.195649 0.303166 0.474811 0.741807 1.141317 1.785092
2025-10-19 0.107036 0.178710 0.291151 0.479867 0.788491 1.273325 2.093590
2025-10-26 0.095021 0.166725 0.284686 0.492163 0.847735 1.432299 2.467290
2025-11-02 0.080103 0.147353 0.263096 0.475943 0.857295 1.511841 2.721730
2025-11-09 0.066660 0.128265 0.238943 0.451271 0.848075 1.557520 2.923473
2025-11-16 0.057661 0.115770 0.224491 0.441565 0.863701 1.648031 3.217287
2025-11-23 0.050059 0.104673 0.210884 0.431180 0.876115 1.733606 3.513025
2025-11-30 0.045334 0.098770 0.206838 0.439778 0.928585 1.906023 4.010365
2025-12-07 0.038800 0.088028 0.191494 0.423123 0.927789 1.974153 4.309707
2025-12-14 0.034157 0.080580 0.181835 0.416931 0.947994 2.088062 4.722512
2025-12-21 0.029971 0.073434 0.171704 0.408074 0.961018 2.188665 5.122145
2025-12-28 0.027912 0.070888 0.171423 0.421459 1.026031 2.411622 5.828887
2026-01-04 0.025187 0.066258 0.165594 0.420865 1.058379 2.565531 6.399198
2026-01-11 0.023098 0.062864 0.162190 0.425624 1.104359 2.757665 7.090059
2026-01-18 0.021566 0.060653 0.161366 0.436742 1.167890 3.000895 7.943695
2026-01-25 0.018989 0.055182 0.151367 0.422462 1.164076 3.077283 8.385163
2026-02-01 0.016417 0.049270 0.139274 0.400621 1.136854 3.090243 8.662851
2026-02-08 0.014698 0.045501 0.132396 0.392054 1.144449 3.195260 9.204526